What will be species 200?

Following the influx of new species in February 2018, giving  total of 198, I pondered what species will be #200 on our list.  There seem to be two broad classes of possibilities:

1. species which have been recorded in the broad local area but which we haven't scored here; or
2. a total vagrant not regularly seen in the ACT or anywhere close.

I don't think its possible to predict anything about class 1, but with class 2 there is some scope for contemplation.To get a handle on this I looked at my overall bird list (and I can't remember exactly how I acquired that - possibly a set of birds ever reported to COG including escapees, very old records and flat-out mis-identifications) of 290 species.  I then coded these fairly subjectively into 5 codes:

1. Equivalent to group 1 above:
1. Likely to be seen eventually (11 species)
2. Unlikely but possible (6)
3. Very unlikely but possible (13)
2. Equivalent to group 2 above:
1. Vagrants to ACT region (19)
2. Where on earth did that come from? (41)

Logic says the next species or three should come from the 11 species in group 1.1.  They are:

• White-headed Pigeon: Not common in Canberra but seems to be expanding its range especially along the coast in Victoria.
• Peaceful Dove: Infrequent in the ACT mainly close to the Murrumbidgee.  Lack of water may hold it back from our area
• Diamond Dove: as for Peaceful Dove.
• Rainbow Lorikeet: Well established in parts of the ACT and a population in Queanbeyan.  I'd rate this as a definite contender.
• Little Lorikeet: This was the second commonest Lorikeet in the ACT but no recent records.
• Musk Lorikeet: Used to be quite uncommon but a near-resident population seems to have become established in Wanniassa,
• Crested Shrike-tit: This species used to be common in restricted habitat in the ACT but seems to be less common recently.  I can't think of suitable habitat in this area.
• Eastern Whipbird: Prefers moist forest - gullies in the Brindabellas are local stronghold.  Could find spots in Cuumbeun or Yanununbean
• Pied Butcherbird: Becoming increasingly common (and now breeding) in the ACT.  It seems to be expanding its territory more than the Rainbow Lorikeet.  The question is will it been #199 or 200?
• Little Wattlebird: Very common at the Coast and infrequent in Canberra.  I'm sure they come through the area, but no-one has yet spotted one!
• Bassian Thrush: Reported from Tallaganda, ANBG and the Brindabella.  Could pop up here on the way between them.

Biting the bullet I'd say the next three species will be #199 Pied Butcherbird; #200 Rainbow Lorikeet and #201 White-headed Pigeon.

A roughy could come from the 6 species in Group 1.2:  Brush Bronzewing more densely wooded areas); Great Crested Grebe (Foxlow Lagoon, and the marsh on The Plain);  Caspian Tern (anywhere there is open water); Red-capped Plover (edges of any dam but uncommon in the area except Lakes George and Bathurst);  Little Egret (uncommon but anywhere there is water); and  White-bellied Cuckoo-shrike (uncommon, but could pop up anywhere).